L4.2 — Tracking Performance: Building a Minimal Expectancy Log

A minimal performance log records: date, instrument, entry, stop, target, actual exit, R result (e.g. +2R, -1R, +0.5R), and a brief note on setup type. That is six fields. It takes two minutes per trade. From this log, you can calculate win rate, average R on winners and losers, and expectancy at any point with a simple spreadsheet.

The log must be maintained in real-time — not reconstructed from memory at the end of the month. Memory is biased toward remembering wins and minimising losses. The log is the antidote to this bias. It provides the objective data set that makes improvement measurable rather than subjective.

Review the log every 20 trades. Ask: is my average win larger than my average loss? Is my win rate approximately what my strategy should produce? Are there consistent patterns in the losses — specific session times, specific instruments, specific setup types that consistently underperform? The log answers these questions. Without it, you are guessing.